2026 US Midterms Likely Hand Democrats Historic Win as Trump’s Approval Hits Record Low

The 2026 United States midterm elections are projected to give Democrats a sweeping victory, with polls indicating an 11‑percentage‑point lead over Republicans, even as President Donald Trump’s approval rating sinks to the lowest level for any incumbent before a midterm, according to The Guardian.

How big is the Democratic advantage?

The Guardian reports that Democrats are projected to win by a margin of 11 percentage points, the largest swing by any party in almost 20 years, and that the party could flip the Senate and secure a large majority in Congress.

What does a Trump defeat mean for his policy legacy?

Even a Democratic win would leave many of Trump’s policies in place, the article notes. USAID has been eliminated, whole departments were crippled by the “department of government efficiency,” and global tariff regimes and expanded ICE powers remain. The ongoing war with Iran also appears poised to become an open‑ended conflict, making reversal difficult.

Why are Democrats in disarray despite favorable odds?

The Guardian points out internal fractures within the Democratic Party: senior figures such as Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton are seen as part of a spent old guard. In Michigan, candidate Abdul El‑Sayed, backed by Barack Obama, faces attacks over his stance on Israel, while fellow Democrat Haley Stevens has endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers. These tensions illustrate a party struggling to define itself beyond opposition to Trump.