EPA predicts Trump methane rollback trims 2027 crude price by 11 cents

The Environmental Protection Agency says President Donald Trump's plan to roll back methane emissions rules would cut 2027 U.S. crude oil prices by about 11 cents a barrel and raise domestic output by roughly 0.09%.

How much will crude prices change?

EPA’s own economic model forecasts an 11‑cent‑per‑barrel reduction in U.S. crude prices for 2027, which translates to a 0.14% drop, according to CNBC. The projection was released after Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposal in Lubbock, Texas, where Zeldin said, “When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices.”

What impact on oil production and methane emissions?

The agency estimates the rule would increase domestic oil production by 0.09%, roughly one extra barrel for every 1,000 produced, and add about 60 million short tons of methane emissions between 2027 and 2050. Marginal wells—about 80% of active U.S. wells but under 10% of output, per the International Energy Agency—would be the primary beneficiaries. EPA is also considering lighter methane requirements based on well‑site production levels or extraction method and would eliminate its Super Emitter Program.

What are the broader economic implications?

EPA projects the changes would save the U.S. economy roughly $45 billion over the 2027‑2050 horizon, including $42 billion in lower compliance costs, while operators would lose about $4.2 billion in gas‑capture revenue, a figure already reflected in the compliance‑savings estimate. CLSA analyst Baden Moore cautioned that uncertainty over implementation and policy durability could limit near‑term investment upside, noting the policy would likely affect only a small slice of the shale market. The proposal remains subject to a public‑comment rulemaking process before any final action.

The rollout coincides with the administration’s move to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports, a step Energy Secretary Chris Wright said could allow additional shipments depending on Moscow’s actions.