England braces for SEND plan surge as families seek support ahead of reforms

Schools across England are bracing for a dramatic rise in the number of pupils holding Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). Headteachers told The Guardian that applications have jumped to what they described as an “unreal” level, with families racing to secure statutory support before the government introduces new provision rules.

Data released by the Department for Education shows that in 2025 roughly one in 20 school‑age children had an EHCP. The latest forecasts suggest that figure could double to one in ten by the end of the current academic year, a shift that would add thousands of new cases to an already stretched system. Councils and school leaders say the surge is prompting urgent budget reviews, as the cost of delivering personalised support – from speech therapy to autism provision – can be substantial.

Local authorities have voiced concern that the rapid increase will outpace funding allocations. “We are looking at a potential shortfall that could affect every aspect of our SEND provision,” said a senior official from a northern council, who asked to remain anonymous. The pressure is being felt in both urban and rural areas, with some schools reporting waiting lists for specialist staff that are now extending beyond the usual term.

The EHCP framework was introduced under the 2014 Children and Families Act to give children with complex needs a legally binding plan for education, health and social care. Since its inception, the number of applications has risen steadily, but the current spike is unusual. Ministers are expected to roll out a reform package later this year that would shift more responsibility for day‑to‑day support onto schools and local authorities, while tightening criteria for new EHCPs. Critics argue that the timing of the policy shift is encouraging families to apply now, inflating numbers before the new rules take hold.

If the trend continues, the Department for Education may need to revisit its funding formula for SEND provision, and schools could face tougher decisions about resource allocation. Parents, meanwhile, are urged to seek early advice from local SEND coordinators to navigate the application process before the anticipated changes reshape eligibility and service delivery.